河北省科学院学报

植被是地球生态系统的核心要素，探究其生态质量变化对生态保护意义重大。本研究采用趋势分析法、转移矩阵模型及地理探测器，揭示2000—2020年河北省植被生态质量指数（VEQI）时空演变规律，定量分析气候、地形及人类活动因子的影响与交互作用。结果表明：河北省VEQI总体波动上升，空间呈“北高南低”，显著增加区域占比46.75%，显著减少占比9.41%。气候上，VEQI与年降水量、年均气温呈显著正相关的区域占比分别为40.71%和3.70%；地形上，高程1 000～1 200m、坡度30°～35°区域改善最显著；人类活动上，VEQI随GDP增长先降后升，与人口密度负相关。旱地转有林地、高覆盖度草地转旱地分别是VEQI改善与退化的主要土地利用驱动类型。驱动因子解释力排序为：土地利用类型>人口密度>GDP>年降水量>坡度>高程>年均气温，各因子交互作用均呈增强效应，以人口密度与年降水量交互作用最突出。本研究可为河北省植被生态保护与管理提供科学依据。

Vegetation,a core component of the Earth′s ecosystem,plays a critical role in ecological conservation.This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of the Vegetation Ecological Quality Index(VEQI)in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020 using trend analysis,transfer matrix model,and geodetector.The driving effects and interactions of climatic,topographic,and human activity factors were quantified.The results show that VEQI generally exhibited a fluctuating upward trend,presenting a spatial pattern of″high in the north and low in the south″．Areas with a significant VEQI increase accounted for 46.75%,while those with significant decrease accounted for 9.41%.Climatically,40.71%of the study area showed a significant positive correlation between VEQI and annual precipitation,whereas only 3.70% correlated positively with annual average temperature.Topographically,the most notable improvements occurred in areas with elevations of 1 000～1 200 mand slopes of 30°～35°．For human activities,VEQI decreased initially and then increased with GDP growth,and was negatively correlated with population density.The conversion of dryland to forestland and the conversion of high-coverage grassland to dryland were the main types of land conversion leading to the improvement or degradation of the ecological quality of the vegetation.The explanatory power of driving factors was ranked as follows:land use type> population density> GDP > annual precipitation > slope> elevation > annual average temperature.All factor interactions demonstrated enhanced effects, with the interaction between population density and annual precipitation being the most significant.This study provides a scientific basis for vegetation ecological conservation and management in Hebei Province.